In general, the size of direct and spillover effects relies on a number of pre-conditions (Tiebout, 1956, Kilkenny and Partridge, 2009).
What determines the size of the economic impact?
First, the size of the resource sector must be large relative to the economy as a whole in order to generate enough employment and wage growth that would create spillover effects into other sectors through indirect and induced effects. In our case, the boroughs’ small size coupled with the significant employment associated with the mine potentially indicates the likelihood of the existence of indirect and induced effects. Is that enough? Even in circumstances where the direct effect effect is large, the direct benefits for local residents may be small if in-migration or commuting is relatively easy and/or local residents lack the skills and expertise demanded by the shocked sector (Moretti, 2010). What determines the size of the indirect effect?
In our case, commuting is not a concern given the remoteness of the area but due the small population of the Northwest Arctic borough, fly-in/fly-out workers are typically relied upon. However, the nature of the agreement between the borough and the mine which provides preferential treatment to residents may alleviate some of these concerns. Second, the size of the indirect effect depends on the presence and strength of linkages between the resource sector and upstream and downstream firms in the area. In the Northwest Arctic borough, the indirect effect is likely to be small given that most of the inputs are imported from outside the region. What about induced effects? Third, the size of the induced effect depends on whether the beneficiaries of direct and indirect effects purchase locally produced goods and services. Overall, communities that experience higher relative shocks, have significant inter-industrial linkages, and have several opportunities to spend earnings locally are the most likely to experience significant gains from natural resource development. These circumstances are, however, less likely to exist in rural areas -even less so in Northwest Alaska- where the labor markets are thin and the suppliers are few.
It is unclear a priori whether the leakage due to the rural location may dampen the overall impact of the mine. We, therefore, attempt to determine whether the agreement between the mine operators and the borough potentially counter-acted many of the typical leakages observed in the typical rural areas. This is because the employment agreements coupled with the revenue sharing may serve as boosts to local economic activity.
What did the last decade across North Carolina counties look like?
It is, unsurprising, that most counties across the state have a median age above 40 given that the state’s median age in 2022 was 39 years old. Brunswick county is the oldest county with a median age of 57. All other counties with a median age above 50 had populations below xxx. xx counties had a median age above 50, xx above 40, and only xx below 30.
What do older counties have in common? There is an urban rural divide when it comes to aging across the state. The USDA’s urban rural continuum shows that the median age in rural communities is xx but only xx for metros….
But what most makes that coastal county an exception to the rural rule, Dollar said, is that it attracts retirees who relocate from all over — and that comes with even more issues
“The US population is indeed getting older and we are unprepared to handle their growing needs for health, habilitative and rehabilitative care in community settings,” Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said in an email Thursday. “This demographic shift is uneven and requires sound planning if we are going to ensure the capacity to protect and ensure public health as our demographics change.”
Globally, while the share of the US population that is 65 and older increased, the United States remains “relatively young” compared with many of peer high-income nations, according to the Census Bureau. Peer nations with the largest share of adults 65 and older are Japan, where that age group represented 28.5% of the population in 2020, followed by Italy at 22.6% and Greece at 22.4%.
“The US grew older from both a decrease in the number of children and an increase in the older population between 2010 and 2020,” Mary Leisenring, the Census Academy program lead, said in a YouTube video distributed by the US Census Bureau on Thursday.
The recent Census data also showed that “the nation’s multiracial population was the youngest of any race group in 2020,” Leisenring said, referring to the population of people who identify as two or more races. “There were around 9 million people who identified as multiracial in 2010, and that group had a median age of only 19.9. But, by selecting the 2020 button, we see the population increased to a